The Media Crisis, Part 4: Consumers (will people buy their eyeballs back?)

We’re spinning in part because people would universally rather rent their time out to marketers than pay for content. Look no further than the backlash against Murdoch’s call for micropayments to see how sure we are that content should be free … or, by free, I mean, bought by someone else.

Content is cheaper than you think.

Here's some surprising news: it’s not that expensive to pay for your own content. Maybe I should tally your bill.

Ok, let’s borrow from the average prime time, broadcast ad placement (the Cadillac of media buys) and some Pew research about the shocking amount of TV we all consume … ok, divide that, carry the one. Here’s what I’ve got:

And that’s assuming that all the programming we watch is in prime time (the most expensive space). Add in a few repeats of the The Wonder Years and the occasional Sunday morning tour of homes show and I’m betting we can get that number down near $60. And, that’s if we want to buy our content outright vs. share some of our buying power with well-intentioned marketers (like me.)

The trends point to paid content

I think we will pay for it.

And, advertising will have to change.

Five converging trends point the way:

• Failure of the old monetization model: We’ve agreed on that by part 4, right?


• The democratization of access: Less expensive computers, free public WiFi, cheaper home connectivity.  We’re saving where we used to spend big, potentially freeing up resources to pay for the content instead of the connectivity.


• Contracting news space: Consolidation of our news sources has created fewer voices (and oft-repeated content). The number of authors is actually much smaller than the number of venues (fewer owners of ideas = fewer people who have to agree on the cost of content)


• Distrust of traditional media: Pew recently reported that 63% of us don’t trust the mainstream media – a number that has doubled in a decade. That trend is all tied up in our distrust of advertiser influence, corporate ownership models, etc.


• Boredom with reality programming: Where once we were satisfied with strangers sharing a hot tub, now we demand acrobatics and morbid obesity to attract our bored attention. Eventually, the cheapest programming will run out of new tricks.

Comments

[Alison]

But what if you could opt-in to ads from companies you like in order to watch your favorite programs instantly? That's where I think we're headed. You provide some demographic data & choose the brands you like, then you learn about promos or new products from brands you're already devoted to & get your programs/podcasts/articles in exchange.

[Emmet Gibney]

The challenge I see is that keeping content locked up is more or less impossible now. If I want to watch the latest episode of Mad Men I can pay $2 to watch it on iTunes, or I can download it for free using bit torrent, and it's available FIRST on bit torrent. Unfortunately "it's the right thing to do" is not enough to prevent most people from going with bit torrent.

I'm not saying that money can't be made with putting things out on iTunes or similar type services, but certainly the monopoly style profits that big media companies made in the past, are stuck in the past. Technological innovation has been the main driving force of change in the media industry, and each step of the way the incumbent companies have tried to stifle innovation to maintain their stronghold.

There are some big opportunities for media companies if they have the foresight to go with the flow. Some people will pay for content, but only if it's easier than finding it for free elsewhere.

I think a model where we are giving our content away for free, in return for becoming a member of our online community would be a plausible model. Integrate with Facebook Connect, allow people to sign in to our site with their Facebook account therefore giving us access to their demographic information. With some creativity we could find ways to target very specific niche markets. We could sell the same show to thousands of different advertisers all vying for different demographics. Laser precision instead of the shot gun approach.

Old media is about talking at people, new media is about including them in the conversation. I think a lot of companies who refuse to adapt to this will not be around in a few years.